In Chapter Six of The Scout Mindset, I discuss the skill of calibration: having the appropriate amount of confidence in your beliefs.

Being perfectly calibrated would mean that your “50% sure” claims are in fact correct 50 percent of the time, your “60% sure” claims are correct 60 percent of the time, your “70% sure” claims are correct 70 percent of the time, and so on. Perfect calibration is an abstract ideal, not something that’s possible to achieve in reality. Still, it’s a useful benchmark against which to compare yourself.

If you’d like to test your own calibration, I’ve put together a set of forty trivia questions for you to practice on. You don’t need to answer all of them, but the more you answer, the more informative your results will be.

For each question, circle an answer and then indicate how sure you are by circling a confidence level. Since these questions have only two possible answers, your confidence level could range from 50 percent if you truly have no clue (i.e., you might as well be guessing the outcome of a coin flip) to 100 percent if you think there is no chance you could be wrong.

For the sake of simplicity, I’ve listed five confidence levels between those extremes: 55%, 65%, 75%, 85%, and 95%. Just circle the one that best represents how sure you are.

As you go through the list, you should notice your level of certainty fluctuating. Some questions might feel easy, and you’ll be near certain of the answer. Others may prompt you to throw up your hands and say, “I have no idea!” That’s perfectly fine. Remember, the goal isn’t to know as much as possible. It’s to know how much you know.

Calibration practice questions (answers here)

Round 1: Are these animal facts true or false?	How sure are you?
1. The elephant is the world’s largest mammal. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
2. Sea otters sometimes hold hands while they sleep. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
3. Centipedes have more legs than any other animal. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
4. Mammals and dinosaurs coexisted. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
5. Bears can’t climb trees. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
6. Camels store water in their humps. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
7. Flamingos are pink because they eat shrimp. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
8. The giant panda eats mostly bamboo. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
9. The platypus is the only mammal that lays eggs. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
10. A mule is a cross between a male donkey and a female horse. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
Round 2: Which historical figure was born first?	How sure are you?
11. Julius Caesar or Confucius?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
12. Fidel Castro or Mahatma Gandhi?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
13. Nelson Mandela or Anne Frank?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
14. Cleopatra or Muhammad?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
15. William Shakespeare or Joan of Arc?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
16. George Washington or Sun Tzu?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
17. Genghis Khan or Leonardo da Vinci?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
18. Queen Victoria or Karl Marx?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
19. Saddam Hussein or Marilyn Monroe?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
20. Albert Einstein or Mao Zedong?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
Round 3: Which country had more people in 2019?	How sure are you?
21. Germany or France?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
22. Japan or South Korea?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
23. Brazil or Argentina?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
24. Egypt or Botswana?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
25. Mexico or Guatemala?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
26. Panama or Belize?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
27. Jamaica or Haiti?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
28. Greece or Norway?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
29. China or India?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
30. Iraq or Iran?	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
Round 4: Are these science facts true or false?	How sure are you?
31. Mars has one moon, just like Earth. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
32. Scurvy is caused by a deficit of vitamin C. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
33. Brass is made from iron and copper. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
34. One tablespoon of oil has more calories than one tablespoon of butter. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
35. Helium is the lightest element. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
36. The common cold is caused by bacteria. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
37. The deepest place on Earth is in the Pacific Ocean. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
38. Seasons are caused by the earth orbiting the sun in an elliptical path. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
39. Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
40. The atoms in a solid are more densely packed than the atoms in a gas. (T / F)	55% 65% 75% 85% 95%

Once you’ve finished, or answered as many questions as you want to, it’s time to score yourself. Check the answer key to find out which you got right and which you got wrong.

Next, go through only the questions about which you were “55% sure” and calculate the percentage of those questions you actually got right. For example, if there were 10 questions for which you said you were 55 percent sure of your answer, and you got 6 of those questions right, then your total percentage right at this confidence level would be 6 / 10 = 60 percent.

	Column A: Number of times you were right	Column B: Number of times you were wrong	% of the time you’re right at this confidence level = A / (A + B)
55% sure
65% sure
75% sure
85% sure
95% sure

Happily, calibration is a skill with a quick learning curve. A couple of hours of practice is all it takes for most people to become very well calibrated— at least within a single domain, like trivia questions. (Your calibration skill in one domain will carry over partially, but not completely, to other domains.)